Perhaps the handle is inflated by players betting $1 or $2 (who wouldn't qualify for the jackpot), this would lower my estimate of the probability of winning. Here are some possible comments, and counter-comments: There are a lot of bright people who participate in my forum (thank you), so I'm putting this out there for peer review. The Las Vegas Sun quotes John Robinson, who puts it at 1 in 49,836,032. However, probabilities of winning often bandied around are 1 in 15 million to 1 in 50 million. Dividing that by 34 jackpots yields a probability of winning of 1 in 95,797,329. Dividing the handle by $3, that would be 3,257,109,180 plays. It costs $3 a pop to qualify for the progressive. 18, 1995, and I don't know if anybody hit in 1995 before Oct. I start at 1996, because they start on Oct. So we see a profit, or house edge, of 11.54%.Īccording to Megabucks has been hit 34 times between 19. The handle column was derived by dividing the second column by the third column. Nevada Gaming Control Board annual reports have a specific line item for Megabucks from their web site. It is pretty easy to get a good estimate of the return. Two questions I'd like to address are the return and probability of winning the jackpot. I'm in the early stages of some analysis of the Megabucks slot machine.
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